Stock market participants would track global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in a holiday-shortened week ahead, amid lack of any major domestic trigger in sight, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
UBS has turned bullish on emerging markets (EM), including India, as it finds benign macro trends, positive momentum in earnings revisions, and resilient EM currencies helping these economies sustain higher valuations and attracting flows. Among regions, it has upgraded Mainland China to 'attractive' and China Tech to 'most attractive', while downgrading Philippines to 'neutral'.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
Ask rediffGURU and tax expert Mihir Tanna your income tax-related questions.
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have further lost favour among Indian investors.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Zomato, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank and Tata Consultancy Services were the gainers.
Capital markets are becoming more prominent in India's growth story, with an expanding share in capital formation and investment landscape on the back of technology, innovation and digitisation, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Further, Indian markets are resilient to global geo-political and economic shocks, it added. "Despite heightened geo-political risks, rising interest rates and volatile commodity prices, Indian capital markets have been one of the best performing among emerging markets in FY24," the Economic Survey said.
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, NTPC, BEL, Adani Ports, Eternal, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Power Grid, ITC, UltraTech Cement, Trent, HCL Technologies, Mahindra & Mahindra, and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. On the other hand, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
Raiwalys in existential crisis but no stock market route: Prabhu.
Indian stocks are becoming "less interesting" as their valuation vis--vis other markets in the Asian region have declined considerably, Swiss banking major Credit Suisse said in a report.
Despite the rally in equities over the last few years, India, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is still in early stages of an equity cult. Any changes to the capital gains tax for equities - both long-term and short-term - in Budget 2024 scheduled to be announced on July 23, he believes, can trigger a bigger correction that what the markets witnessed post the Lok Sabha election outcome on June 4 that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose majority, though it was able to form the government with the help of coalition partners.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
From the Sensex pack, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Asian Paints were among the laggards. Reliance Industries fell the most by 2.38 per cent to close at Rs 1,171.10 apiece.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) on Friday reported a 13 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in consolidated revenue from operations for the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), largely due to the cyberattack on its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in late August that forced a shutdown of its manufacturing operations for over five weeks.
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
Digital payments provider PhonePe has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi for its upcoming initial public offering (IPO) using the confidential pre-filing route. On Wednesday, the company's spokesperson said, "PhonePe Ltd has filed the Pre-filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus with Sebi and the stock exchanges, under...the Sebi ICDR Regulations in relation to the proposed initial public offering of its equity shares on the main board of the stock exchanges".
Sebi has put in place a strong deterrence to check any misuse of participatory notes.
On average, stocks that debuted last year are down 37 per cent from their peak levels.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
The company's market valuation stood at Rs 10,972 crore in morning trade.
Retail investors have been the hardest hit in the recent market downturn, with stocks where they hold over 20% falling 45% from their 52-week highs.
State Bank of India-led public sector banks posted a record cumulative profit of Rs 49,456 crore in the second quarter of the current fiscal, reflecting a 9 per cent year-on-year growth despite two lenders reporting a decline. All 12 public sector banks (PSBs) together made a profit of Rs 45,547 crore in the September quarter of FY25.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd's (HUL's) second quarter 2025-26 (Q2FY26) consolidated revenue rose 2 per cent to Rs 16,250 crore, with low or flat volume growth. Demand remained stable but goods and services tax (GST) transition and prolonged monsoon hurt offtake.
'India needs at least 70,000 to 80,000 eyewear stores; our 2,000 stores are just a drop in the ocean.'
Power Grid is one of the more promising stocks from the newer listings and I would surely look at it even at current levels. Even when the market fell viciously Power Grid didn't fall as much, says market expert Pranav Sanghavi.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
'I don't think it is right to remove him over one lapse. The focus should be on restoring operations, not on removing a key management personnel.'
When shorts are based on perceived corporate mismanagement or malfeasance, as in cases like Enron and Satyam, they enable the financial system to work efficiently, points out Devangshu Datta.
While few doubt stocks here are quoting at price-earnings ratios which are higher than those in peer countries, India's growth prospects are the key differentiator.
Markets regulator Sebi has barred US-based Jane Street Group from the securities markets and directed the group to disgorge unlawful gains of Rs 4,843 crore for allegedly manipulating stock indices through positions taken in derivatives segment. This could be the highest disgorgement amount ever directed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
For investors who missed the initial IPO frenzy, the market correction is an opportunity to selectively invest in promising names, but patience and careful evaluation remain the key.
Global markets could correct 5-10 per cent. If that happens, Indian markets will correct about 10 per cent
Among Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and Axis Bank were the major laggards. However, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC and HCL Tech were among the gainers.
Indian government may still have reservations over allowing pension funds in stock markets, but retirement savings worth a billion dollars of more than one million Americans have already been invested in Indian equities.
This is the longest winning streak for gold in the last three decades.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
The country, last year, stood at the 27th spot for effective regulation and supervision of securities exchanges.
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